Wednesday, July 29, 2009

A SIMPLE MANS LOOK AT GLOBAL WARMING

THIS IS NOT AN ATOMIC BOMB IT IS A VOLCANO

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Did you know that man has been through global warming before?
Did you know that water vapor is by far the main green house gas?
Did you know that global warming is a natural trend?
Did you know that the earth’s volcanoes are the world’s thermostat?
Did you know that man has been through global cooling before?
Did you know that the Cap & Trade bill does nothing to stop Global Warming?

I've been hearing a lot of talk about Cap and trade and Global warming. They are saying that we humans because of our technical advancements are destroying the world. I decided to find out as much about the subject as I could.

The first thing I needed was to understand the Cap & Trade bill itself. To the best of my ability to understand it is a method of concealing taxes. It will be the largest tax increase in the nation's history.

The idea is to give carbon credits to companies to allow them to operate. They have to buy these credits. The cost will be passed on to us. The part of this bill that made it obvious it was just a money maker was the selling of these credits on the stock exchange.

It struck me here that if they believe we are causing global warming. Why are we giving credits to allow the companies to continue doing it?

There is a lot of talk about alternate fuel sources and resources being discussed all have a carbon-base. There is a lot of talk about clean coal, something that does not exist. A large portion of our power stations use coal. All of us that pay electric bills will see them go up substantially. It also will be added to the price of everything that we purchase. Electricity is used in 100% of the things we purchase. Transportation also uses carbon-based fuels. This is a big one. It gets everybody. They say, it's not a tax “By any other name a rose will smell the same.” It isn't a rose I smell here!

There will be no reason to develop alternate fuel sources. Just buy more carbon credits and pass the cost on to us. The money will not be invested in alternate fuel sources.

Hydrogen a perfectly clean energy source is never discussed. There will be too much money in the trading of the carbon credits. The only thing that might work is a carbon tax. The problem with that is, they will have to admit, it is a tax. I call this bill Cap and Con. It already has passed the House of Representatives and the Senate will take it up when they return from their vacation.

I decided to see if there is something else that might be causing the greenhouse effect other than human beings.

Our atmosphere is composed of 78.08% nitrogen, 20.95% oxygen. .93% Argon .038% Carbon Dioxide and trace amounts of other gases such as methane. It also contains water vapor, about 2% to 4% depending on the area. Guess what? Water vapor is a greenhouse gas. It is the thing that makes our clouds and causes our rain. It comes mostly from water evaporating from the ocean, which covers 4/5 of the planet. It is by far the largest greenhouse gas of them all. The one we are concerned with here is carbon dioxide is .038% of the atmosphere. I never hear water vapor being discussed when it comes to greenhouse gases. Yet it is the biggest one and the one we need the most. The Sahara desert would love it if there were a lot more water vapor.

The graph below shows only the greenhouse gases. Oxygen and nitrogen are not displayed You will see that water vapor is 95% of it. All these gases are produced naturally, supporters of the greenhouse effect being caused by man like to say. It is our burning of fossil fuels that is creating the problem. There are other sources on this planet for CO2 and the other greenhouse gases. It is volcanoes I will discuss them in more detail in this blog.


It doesn't matter if you're a Democrat or Republican. We all need to live here so let's get it right. Lets not waste money on the wrong thing. We need energy. The lower the cost of that energy the better our lives will be. It doesn't matter whether you're black or white, rich or poor energy is required. It is the use of energy that has separated us from other animals on this planet from the first caveman building a fire to our modern transportation and heating systems. All came about because of energy.

I am retired, and operate a flea market booth in The Market of Marion FL. During the summer it is only open two days. This gives me time to do something else. I have a website www.vikingbobs.net that contains other articles I have written about energy. Energy is an absolute requirement if our style of life is to continue.

I see a lot of things being done in Congress in an effort to get money. I believe that Cap & Trade is just a method to tax us and give those with an agenda away to pay for it. They are trying to say, we are saving the planet by paying these taxes. The truth is they need to revamp the tax system. Lets make it fair for all. It is so full of loopholes that you would think it was Swiss cheese. The oil, gas and coal will run out. Why not set up a tax system now that is not based on something that is going to go away?

I decided to use the Internet to see if I could make some sense out of all the so-called facts that I see being presented. There is a lot of BS out there.

The first thing I did was to learn a little about the global warming and cooling process. I've found that over its 4 1/2 billion years of life this planet has cycled up and down in temperature many, many times. It has been considerably colder and considerably warmer than it is now. I am not going into a lot of technical detail here. Anyone interested can find the information on the Internet very easily. Or just buy a good book on the history of the earth. I have included a list showing the up / down temperature cycle.

Name Climate Time Spanned (years ago)
Wisconsinan Ice age 75,000 -10,000
Sangamonian Warm 120,000 - 75,000
Illinoisan Ice age 170,000 – 120,000
Yarmouthian Warm 230,000 – 170,000
Kansan Ice age 480,000 – 230,000
Aftonian Warm 600,000 – 480,000
Nebraskan Ice age 800,000 – 600,000
Pre-Nebraskan Warm 1,600,000 – 800,000

When compared to the rest of the universe we humans operate in a very narrow band of temperature. It is the operational temperature of water that determines our existence. Conditions such as pressure and pollutants can affect this range. For the sake of this blog I will use 32.5° F. as a liquid and 31.5° F. as a solid and 212° F. as a gas. Those measurements are the upper and lower switch point that changes water from a liquid to a solid and vice a versa. 212° F. is the point that changes water from a liquid to a gas.

I call the change from a solid to liquid and then a liquid to a gas: “The switch points of water”.Water also will evaporate and can be suspended in the air. Anyone who has lived through a summer in Florida knows how sticky it can become. When the air cools down it will release the water and the humidity will go down. And the snowbirds will return.

The temperature range that works best for us is between 50° F. and 90°F. That is a range of 40°F with 50% humidity. To expand its range we have developed air-conditioning and heating systems. We wrap ourselves in garments. We also build enclosures to protect us (buildings). All of these advancements require energy. It allows our airplanes to fly and our cars to drive. We cannot however forget the effect that wonderful substance water plays. It can absorb heat, carry heat and give off heat. And yes, it can crack rocks besides fish love it!

We require energy to expand our operating temperature range. We must realize that the planet is cycling up and down in temperature. This is going to happen, whether we are on the planet or not. All it needs is some volcanoes, the sun and all that water.

As the planet cycles, the area we can occupy changes. We are not ocean going creatures. Without boats we are land bound. When I hear the statement we are causing a temperature change. I have to question it. There are many more things with considerably more power than we have, that are causing it to happen and have for billions of years.

The main power source that supplies the energy that causes this planet to heat is our sun. It is the ability of the planet to reflect and absorb this energy that maintains the temperature. It is our thermostat. There is a considerable amount of water on this planet. We all know that a large pot of water takes a long time to boil and a long time to cool down. Our oceans do the same thing. The sun is heating them from above, and volcanoes are heating them from below. It is the job of the atmosphere and the planet surface to regulate these two power sources.

The earth tilts on its axis as it orbits the sun. We know that has an effect. Australia is freezing right now, because of it. The tilt is not consistent and varies as we revolve around the sun. It is one of the reasons given to the Holocene Maximum. The warmest period in the last 8000 years. It was considerably warmer than it is now. Hummmmm

This graph shows the temperature variations over 18,000 years (BP = Before present) The period of time 18,000 through 15,000 yearswas the Ice Age. We can see that the earth’s temperature hassteadily increased over the last 18,000 years. The earthnormally wants to increase in temperature Note thesharp increase in the temperature at the 10,000 yearpoint. I believe this is due to the switch point of water.

We also know that water will move when it is heated. This causes ocean currents that stir the water like a giant pot of soup. This allows heat from the hotter areas to travel to the cooler areas. It’s nature's way of helping us live in areas that could be hostile to us otherwise. It’s a complex and truly wonderful system. More than one effect is necessary to maintain the narrow window that we live within.

There is another characteristic of water that we have not discussed yet. That is its ability to change color. When it is a solid (ice & snow) the normal color is white, a perfect reflector. Those of us that dress in white during the summer use the same principle. When it is a liquid it is clear. Heat from the sun can then be absorbed. Only a few of us would dare dress that way in the winter. So we use dark clothes instead.

With this knowledge as a background I looked at what we know of the Earth's temperature across a couple hundred million years. What I found was when the Dinosaurs were on this planet. There were no icecaps. Something was heating the planet. We all know the Dinosaurs disappeared, and rather abruptly. There are competing theories as to what happened to them from a meteor to our volcanoes.

It struck me here that if a volcano did erupt and its gas cloud blocked the sun. Sulfur gases are expelled from volcanoes; they mixed with water and form sulfuric acid. The droplets act like a mirror and reflect the sun’s energy. As the earth tilted on its axis (winter and summer) small icecap could have formed. The white color would've reflected the Sun. The air above the icecap would have dropped in temperature, releasing the water that was suspended in it. (Snow) This would have lowered the greenhouse effect. Furthermore, remember clouds can travel and snow can fall long distances away from the source. This would cause more sunlight to be reflected.

In a very short space of time, because of the switch point of water, it could've covered an awful lot of the world. The next step could've been a second volcano goes bang. The ash covers the ice, and now it can start absorbing the heat from the sun and away goes the glacier. All because of the switch point of water. Remember it only has to move 1°. It really does not take a major upheaval. It can cascade until it is interrupted. The temperature can cycle up and down using volcanic eruptions, and the switch point of water.

What caused it is not the important fact here. The temperature change that occurred is. If it were volcanoes or meteor effect on the atmosphere would have been the same millions of tons of ash would have been put high in the air, blocking off the sun or covering the ice. Occurrences like this have happened multiple times over the last hundred million years.

I am not going to spend time here reviewing each one of them. I am just going to hit the highlights. Let's look at some of the major volcanic eruptions that have occurred, with humans on the planet. I will start with the first known meeting between humans and a volcano. This time it will be global cooling.

Stone tools were found at a site in southern India, above and below a thick layer of ash from the eruption of the Toba volcano in Indonesia. The tools from each layer were remarkably similar. The huge dust clouds from the eruption didn’t wipe out the population of tool-using people. Early humans had survived this event. Their use of fire may have helped them survive the cold. (First known energy use)

Let’s jump ahead here. When you look that far in the past you could get the idea that it won't happen again.

The eruption of Novarupta was the largest of the 20th century. It occurred in 1912, from June 6 to June 8. The 60 hour long eruption expelled 13 to 15 cubic kilometers (3.1 to 3.6 cu mi) of magma, 30 times as much as the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. The erupted magma resulted in more than 17 cubic kilometers (4.1 cu mi) of air fall and approximately 11 cubic kilometers (2.6 cu mi) of ash-flow tuff. Only the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines was of a similar magnitude. Like Pinatubo over the following months, the aerosols formed a global layer of sulfuric acid haze. Global temperatures dropped by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F). (Global cooling)

Mount Pinatubo is an active volcano located in the Philippines. The volcano's eruption in June 1991 produced the second largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th century. It came some 450–500 years after the volcano's last known eruption. It was believed to be dormant.

The effects of the eruption were felt worldwide. It ejected roughly 10 billion metric tons (10 cubic kilometers) of magma, and 20 million tons of SO2, bringing vast quantities of minerals and metals to the surface environment. It injected large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere—more than any eruption since that of Krakatau in 1883. Over the following months, the aerosols formed a global layer of sulfuric acid haze reflecting the sun. Global temperatures dropped by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F). (global cooling)

Let's make a note here, both major eruptions resulted in cooling of the earth. It is starting to look like the normal tendency of the earth is to get warm. And along comes the volcanoes and cools it back down. I didn't give up here. I wanted more proof.

I went to a time just 10,000 years ago. There was an Ice Age. I am not going to discuss what started it. The explanation above covers that.

I will choose 10,000 years ago, because humans lived on this continent. We call them the Clovis people. They used bows and arrows and had discovered fire and dressed in animal skins and build dwellings. Their arrowheads have been found all over North America. I doubt their campfires caused global warming. At the same time, there was a glacier 2 miles thick. It extended down past what is now Lake Michigan right into the heartland of what is now the United States. That means this planet was considerably colder then.

The Clovis people hunted mammoths for their existence. Mammoth bones were found in many of their campsites. As we are being blamed today for global warming they have been blamed for hunting the Monmouth into extinction. New evidence shows that something very abrupt happened in the atmosphere. It caused the glaciers to melt very rapidly. Competing theories say a meteor strike or volcanic ash on the ice flow caused the temperature change. What really caused it? All together now “The switch point of water!”

The evidence shows that the Clovis people could exist in the cold environment because of their mastery of fire (energy). Man's very survival on this planet was due to his early use of energy.

After the great meltdown evidence of the Clovis people disappeared and so did the Woolly Monmouth. This is the first evidence of a man having problems with “Global Warming”. I don't believe his activities caused the meltdown.

Whatever happened, the temperature went up. Guess what? There were no “RVs”. There was just that pesky old water and its partners, the volcanoes. Yes the sun was there also. Ok the tilt can't be left out. With this in mind, I continued my search.

I've decided to start looking more closely at the volcanoes. What became immediately apparent is there are a lot more volcanoes on this planet than I ever knew. There are 1500 to 2000 of them that we consider active. Most of these are just venting gas or pouring out lava, not going ka-boom. Some have lakes in their craters.

I hear you say: “Okay Bob, this is a nice history lesson. Nevertheless, what does that have to do with Cap and Con?”

Just bear with me for a moment while I present you with a little more history. And then I will make the points that I think many of the so-called experts are leaving out.

I showed you that man has faced global warming and cooling before, and it did have some very disastrous effects. But he survived. Let's concentrate closer to our time. I will also review some of the other effects that are caused by volcanoes.
THIS MAP SHOWS THE LOCATION OF KNOWN VOLCANOES
ON OUR PLANET
Volcanic eruptions have affected the Earth's temperature for 4.5 billion years. Look at the map above and note the number of volcanoes that we know about. As you read this blog realize the power that just one volcano has. It doesn't take years to happen. In just a few hours it can affect the whole planet.

After the eruption of Laki in 1783 the eastern US recorded the lowest ever winter average temperature in 1783 and 1784. About 4.8° C. below the 225 year average. Crops and animals died and so did over 100,000 people!

Benjamin Franklin suggested that these cold conditions resulted from the blocking out of sunlight by dust and gases created by the Iceland Laki eruption.

Tambora 1815 - This eruption in Indonesia resulted in an extremely cold spring and summer in 1816, which became known as the year without a summer. This eruption was believed to be the largest in 10,000 years. Again Crops and animals died and so did over a million people! The earth’s temperature dropped 4 degrees.

Krakatau 1883 - this Indonesian volcano generated 20 times the volume of the 1980 eruption in the US of Mount Saint Helens. For months after the Krakatau eruption, the world experienced unseasonable cold-weather brilliant sunsets and prolong twilights due to the spread of the aerosols throughout the stratosphere. The temperature on the planet dropped 8.5 degrees. The effect lasted for 5 years.

Again I hear you: “Okay, Bob more history, what is the point?”

The point simply is after every one of these volcanic eruptions, and the Ice Age 10,000 years ago. The planet slowly came up in temperature. These occurrences were long before we were driving cars and flying airplanes. I believe it is a natural cycle that this world goes through. It wants to get warmer.

The sun slowly heats the planet than something like a meteor hits the planet. Large volcanoes erupt and the earth cools down. OK tilters I say that's a possibility also.

When I discovered that there were many different types of volcanoes. I started finding out the different effect a volcano can have. We can see from the examples above that a major eruption can cause a drop in temperature.

What about the minor eruptions? There are 1500 - 2000 volcanoes that we know of presently active on this planet. Many of them are just releasing gas and staying pretty much dormant. At least a thousand of them are under the ocean. (See attached photo of volcanic locations on our planet) We are not really sure how many there are under the ocean.

Let's take a moment here to view what gases are expelled during a volcanic eruption. Many volcanoes considered dormant still vent gas. The abundance of gas varies considerably from volcano to volcano. Water vapor is consistently the most common volcanic gas normally composing more than 60% of total missions. Carbon dioxide typically accounts for 10 to 40% of emissions. There are many other gases, such as methane. For this blog, let’s consider water vapor, carbon dioxide and methane. There are other processes on this planet that produce carbon dioxide and methane. Human activities account for some of it. Methane is also produced in abundance from many volcanoes. We have been concentrating on gases. Let's not forget the other byproduct of all active volcanoes is heat!

The last time I put a pot of water on the stove, and turned on the flame. Slowly but surely, the water gets hotter. I see no reason to doubt that the volcanoes under the ocean are slowly heating it. They are also releasing gases into the ocean. One of the major outputs from a volcano is CO2. This converts to carbolic acid when it enters water. This can be contributing to the increase in acidity in our oceans. This is an activity that the greenhouse proponents blame on us. It is the same thing that makes the dentist tell you that soda is bad for your teeth. In the ocean it kills the Coral.

The CO2 that does not become carbolic acid rises to the surface and enters the atmosphere. Methane released from volcanoes can freeze and build up at the bottom of the ocean.

Submersibles have found giant methane ice cubes. When the pressure is reduced or the temperature goes up the gas will return and bubble to the surface. It is one of those crazy answers for the things that happen in the Bermuda triangle. The theory is that extremely large methane bubbles rise to the surface of the ocean, overturning ships and stalling aircraft engines. That methane then enters the atmosphere.

I'm going to concentrate on CO2 here, because that's the main gas that the tax is based on.

Before I leave the subject I would like to point out one more fact about volcanoes. The amount of water vapor coming out of volcanoes on land is high. But on islands is higher, if you go to the Volcano national Park in Hawaii. You will see the lava streaming into the ocean and what is above it. Clouds of steam! So not only are you getting the normal water vapor. The heat of the lava is causing the ocean to boil. This is true of many islands that have active volcanoes. Remember, water vapor is by far the largest greenhouse gas.

Let's now take a commonsense look at low level or even considered dormant volcanoes and their CO2 output.

In 1986, Lake Nyos in West Cameroon “burped” It is located in what was considered a dormant volcano crater. Volcanic CO2 gas that was trapped in the bottom of the lake was released at such a volume that it swept down the valley and killed more than 1700 people and all of their livestock.

Two years previous to this occurrence, Lake Monoun also in Cameroon did the same thing. It only killed 37 people and hundreds of animals. It went virtually unnoticed.

Pipes have been placed in the lakes to release the carbon dioxide at a slower rate. It is still entering the atmosphere. Dieng Plateau in Central Java, Indonesia. 149 people and their livestock were killed. The reason was the same. There are hundreds of these volcanic lakes on this planet. Many contain large amounts of CO2.

We also have no idea how many there are under the ocean all releasing CO2. Even the dormant volcanoes are suspect.

I did a little more research, and I found some other interesting facts. I have included several graphs. The top chart shows the number of active volcanoes on this planet listed per year. In 1880 there are less than 30. This increased to over 70 by 2008. There are already 50 in 2009.

The bottom graph shows the rise in Earth's temperature for the same period of time. It is a little less than 1 degree. As you can see the increase plot is similar. We have had a steady increase in low-level volcanic activity. The type that percolate and release gas not much more. It is the gas release that concerns me. It is mostly water vapor & CO2.



There are now more than double the amount of low level active
volcanoes on the planet as there were in 1880.
The graph above shows the sea level changes in the north Atlantic.
It is obivious that the level is rising

Since Krakatoa in 1883. There have been no volcanic eruptions of that size on the surface of this planet. To learn what Krakatoa is doing today


Click here:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1203028


Other evidence from the fact that the world naturally wants to get warmer, comes from our closest neighbor Mars. There are dormant volcanoes on Mars. Some astronomers believe they are active and venting gas. The atmosphere of Mars is mostly carbon dioxide. Again no RVS, just a little rover. Mars also has polar caps. The temperature of Mars is increasing and its polar caps are melting. It seems that both planets have a tendency to warm. Mars, however, without water or active volcanoes has no way to cool back down.

With this kind of evidence around us, should we be rushing head over heels into a complete change in our way of living and the largest tax increase ever proposed. No one escapes this one.
My opinion is those volcanoes have a lot more power than man will ever have.

After carefully studying volcanoes and seeing how they have affected our climate. My opinion is (Cap and Trade) is the new derivative. We know what trouble they got us into. The sale of carbon credits is a scheme that Barney Maydoff would be proud of. When carbon credits are sold on the stock market it will just be Enron 2.

A lot of people will make lots of money from it. The rest of us will pay a lot for it. I think it is obvious that with a moneymaking scheme like this one there will be no motive to move to something like hydrogen. It will be delayed even farther. There will be too much money involved in trading carbon credits. No one will want to give up that cash. They will block the development of Hydrogen or any other alternate fuel source that eliminates carbon use. It is already going on.

I ask the questions, who will have carbon credits and how will you measure what someone is using?

We are being stampeded into something, that there is no really clear scientific facts to back it up.

China with its 6 1/2 billion people, and India with its 3 billion, Pakistan with their 1.5 billion are not joining this crazy scheme. Believe me when I say, they all will be driving RVs. We will be paying through the nose, and driving around in go carts.

How can we be so arrogant as to think we can control the temperature on this planet?

Especially by issuing carbon credits. I know much of this sounds like a political statement, but it is not. It is just a simple man's common sense. Our actions will have little to no affect on the planet! The only effect will be on our wallets, if cap & trade becomes law. I call it Cap & Con. The earth will keep on cycling up and down as it has for 4 1/2 billion years.

My intent with this blog was to show you the reader an alternate possibility for global warming. If we have anything to do with global warming, I believe, it is not much. That does not mean I don't believe something needs to be done about energy in this country. I would like to be able to drive behind a bus and still take a deep breath. Carbon-based fuels will run out, and as they approach that point. The price will go up. Why not switch to Hydrogen now?

Even if you think that man is causing global warming you should be in favor of hydrogen. It is the cleanest fuel of them all! There will be no carbon credits to trade if we make the transition to hydrogen. It is just a way for congress to and investors to get money!!!!!

I repeat, if the people pushing this plan really believe that humans were causing global warming. They would not be issuing carbon credits, so he can continue. They would very rapidly be switching over to fuels that do not cause any of these problems. Atomic power and eventually Hydrogen are the obvious choice. Windmills, hydroelectric and solar panels can also be used. They don't work very well when they're mounted on a car. That is where hydrogen comes in. It also will power our aircraft.
Remember no one could say a thing if you drove a big SUV if it were hydrogen powered. Forcing us into small vehicles and over insulating our homes is not the answer. Clean, hydrogen and atomic power is. The American way is to go forward, not backward. We need more energy, not less. That will really mean jobs.

I see the Obama administration has invested in offshore oil in Brazil. It does not seem to me that they are interested in stopping carbon use in the world. Just here so they can tax it.

The latest information says that volcanic activity has decreased. The average temperature is starting down. I suspect, from what I've seen in cycle times. It will continue in this direction for at least two to three years, maybe longer. I do not know what will happen after that. I do not believe that anyone else does either. If past trends continue, it will start rising again until it starts down again. Up and down it will go. Cycling is natural, and there is little that we can do to stop nature. This is not peer-reviewed information. It is just a simple man's view based on his observations.